Exactly!

I didn’t think I mentioned Syria, because I was wondering whether I should have, but it’s too hard to go back and look from where I am. Anyway, I agree with your comments there. Iran is only supporting Assad as the lesser of two evils. If he’s out there will be Sunni leadership. Also, Iran is an ally of Russia.

I know Hamas is Sunni, and Iran only supports them because of their willingness to attack Israel. It’s a case of the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Rouhani is moderate compared to the Ayatollah. That doesn’t mean moderate in our sense of the word, and I’m not claiming he is. He is more moderate than the Saudi government, which the US and Israel don’t publicly criticize because they’re an ally. The human rights abuses in that country are appalling. Just like Iran (and 11 other countries) atheism is punishable by death. Being an atheist gets you automatically labelled a terrorist in SA too. And women there have the highest suicide rate in the world. They have even less rights than in Iran. The women of Iran are fighting the compulsory hijab law, and having some success. The women of SA are not there yet.

I had written something, but I hadn’t posted it yet — it’s up now if you have time. And you don’t have to apologise. I often just delete emails from other websites that I really want to read but just don’t have the time. I can go months without reading a couple of favourites. The only one I reliably read is WEIT, and I even miss some of them.

“how trashing it [JCPOA] makes it harder for Iran to get nukes. It makes it quicker and easier. ” That was exactly the point I tried to make.
Moreover, now that the US opted out out, they appear to have no follow-up strategy whatsoever… war? or what?

You are absolutely right that the centuries long conflict between Shia and Sunni Muslims is another complicating factor. You are, however, mistaken that the „resistance axix” (Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas) is kept together by their common religion. For centuries Alawites (ruling in Syria) were treated by both Sunni and Shia Muslims as heretics (they do not accept sharia nor hijab, they allow alcohol – and this is anathema for both Sunni and Shia). However, since 1979 when mullahs took over Iran and one of the main goals of their regime became annihilation of Israel, they softened their stance and decided to accept Alawites.

Hezbollah is simply an Iranian organization: designed in Iran, planted in Lebanon, trained, financed and armed by Iran. Shia, the majority in Iraq, persecuted by Sunni minority under Saddam, came to power with massive Iranian help. But Hamas is purely Sunni. 99,8% population in Gaza Strip are Sunni (0,2% Christians). Iran also armes elements on the West Bank (Sunnis as well) who are against any recognition of Israel (but not Palestinian Authority, treated by Iran as traitors). There are enough statements of highest Iran’s officials to the effect that they will back, suport and arm anybody who is against Israel – no matter their faith. So the glue keeping „resistant axix” together is their goal to eradicate Israel – not their common religion.

Iran has clearly stated its imperial ambitions, they are building the so called „Shia Crescent” and their war with Saudi Arabia in Yemen is a part of this endavour. There is a Sunni majority in Yemen (56%) but a very substantial Shia minority (44%) and Iran is doing everything to get this country under Shia’s rule.

President Obama clearly stated that there should be a better balance between Sunnis (90% of Muslims) and Shia (10%) which encouraged mullahs no end. No wonder Sunni Arab states, especially those in which there is a Shia minority, are afraid.

I could never understand why Hassan Rouhani was ever treated as moderate. Not only executions of Iranian dissidents, minorities and homosexuals counted in thousands under his rule, not only all free speech is strangled, but he clearly states his goals which are very, very far from „moderate”. If nothing else you can look up quotes by Rouhani in Wikipedia. Here is one example: „Saying ‘Death to America’ is easy. We need to express ‘Death to America’ with action. Saying it is easy”. (Remark made on May 8, 2013, as quoted in About That New ‘Moderate’ Iranian Cabinet . . ., The Wall Street Journal, August 7, 2013)

I disagree with the rest of your comments as well, but this is long enough.

“I think I wrote something somewhere about him yesterday. ”

Sorry, Heather, much as I love your blog I just haven’t been able to keep up lately. FWIW, it’s the same for me & WEIT. So much great content, so little time!

Yes it makes it quicker and easier for Iran to get nukes. That makes it quicker and easier for Trump to go to war with them, which is the only upside for Trump at this point.

The JCPOA is not perfect. However, the thing I have the biggest trouble understanding is how trashing it makes it harder for Iran to get nukes. It makes it quicker and easier. That alone makes Israel less safe.

And there are plenty in Israel who oppose this move. It is NOT universally popular.

He’s been commenting on Fox. That would have been great on his Resumé!